ROPES

The contract is the market maker

ROPES doesn't match buyers with sellers. On every trade, the contract works out the fair price of each side: the chance HYPE finishes above the strike, given where it is now and how much time is left.

Reading a price

• At the start of a round, HYPE is right on the strike, so UP and DOWN are each worth about 0.50.
• You buy at fair value plus a 1% spread, so about 0.51. A winning share pays 1, so that's about 1.96×.
• As HYPE moves, the price moves with it. Late in the round a small move swings the price a lot.
• The spread doubles in the last 10 seconds, when prices swing fastest.

One guardrail

The game won't put you into a side priced above 0.90. At that price you'd risk your whole stack to make 11%.